On Tuesday, there was a drop in the US dollar and yields also declined initially, after data highlighting slowing economic growth boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve changing its stance.

It was expected that a dovish pivot would be seen on Friday when the chairman of the Federal Reserve will give a speech at the economic symposium at Jackson Hole.

Data impact

However, stocks retreated while yields climbed later in the session, as the possibility of a hawkish Fed seemed to hold more sway.

However, the markets were still betting on the extent of the interest rate hike that would come from the US central bank in next month’s meeting.

Gold finally put an end to a losing streak that had been ongoing for six sessions as the US dollar fell. There was a more than 4% rise in oil after the possibility of output cuts was floated by Saudi Arabia.

There was a drop in US sales of single family homes, bringing them down to a low of six and a half years and private sector business activity also declined to a low of 27 months.

This suggested that the efforts of the Fed to slow down the economy in order to curb inflation were working.

Fed’s stance

Market analysts said that the Fed has been quite consistent when it comes to its hawkish stance, but over the summer, risk appetite had returned over the possibility of a slowdown in the hiking cycle.

However, some experts did say that they expect Powell to reiterate the possibility of a slowdown, as he had done in his conference in July.

It had also been reflected in the minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed that had been released the previous week.

It is likely that the Fed chair would strike a balance in his message by highlighting that the US central bank is still focused on curbing decisions and that incoming data would determine policy decisions.

Markets’ performance

Analysts also added that there was an energy price shock coming for the US economy in the winter season, as natural gas prices stood at their highest after 2008.

There would be another negative shock because of a cooldown in demand and this would result in a recession by mid-2023.

There was a 0.47% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while a 0.22% drop was seen in the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite, on the other hand, ended the day flat.

There was a 0.422% drop in the US dollar index, as the euro climbed, raking in gains of almost 0.24% to reach $0.9965.

Markets have been going back and forth over whether the US Fed would increase interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points in September.

Earlier in the day, the euro had declined to lows of two decades, after data highlighted a contraction in the euro zone business activity for the second month in a row in August.

The outlook for the European economy remains bleak because of the Russia and Ukraine war.

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